Modeling vessel kinematics using a stochastic mean-reverting process for a long-term prediction
We present a novel method for predicting long-term target states based on mean-reverting stochastic processes. We use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, leading to a revised target state equation and to a time scaling law for the related uncertainty that in the long term is shown to be orders of magnitude lower than under the nearly constant velocity (NCV) assumption. In support of the proposed model, an analysis of a significant portion of real-world maritime traffic is provided.
SourceIn: IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, volume 52, issue 5, October 2016, pp. 2313-2330, doi: 10.1109/TAES.2016.150596
Willett, Peter K.