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Detecting anomalous deviations from standard maritime routes using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process
(CMRE, 2019/05)
A novel anomaly detection procedure based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) mean-reverting stochastic process is presented. The considered anomaly is a vessel that deviates from a planned route, changing its nominal velocity ...
Hybrid Bernoulli filtering for detection and tracking of anomalous path deviations
(CMRE, 2019/05)
This paper presents a solution to the problem of sequential joint anomaly detection and tracking of a target subject to switching unknown path deviations. Based on a dynamic model described by Ornstein- Uhlenbeck (OU) ...
Long-term vessel kinematics prediction exploiting mean-reverting processes
(CMRE, 2019/06)
Long-term target state estimation of non-manoeuvring targets, such as vessels under way in open sea, is crucial for maritime security. The dynamics of non-manoeuvring targets is traditionally modelled with a white noise ...
Modeling vessel kinematics using a stochastic mean-reverting process for a long-term prediction
(CMRE, 2019/06)
We present a novel method for predicting long-term target states based on mean-reverting stochastic processes. We use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, leading to a revised target state equation and to a time scaling ...
Scalable distributed change detection and its application to maritime traffic
(CMRE, 2019/06)
Building on a novel methodology based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process to perform accurate long-term predictions of future positions of ships at sea, we present a statistical approach to the detection of abrupt changes ...
Data driven vessel trajectory forecasting using stochastic generative models
(2019/05)
In this work, we propose a data driven trajectory forecasting algorithm that utilizes both recorded historical and streaming trajectory observations. The algorithm performs Bayesian inference on a directed graph the walks ...
Validation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck route propagation model in the Mediterranean Sea
(CMRE, 2019/06)
Traffic route analysis and prediction are both crucial to maritime security. The ability to predict a vessel position in the future is essential to provide information on upcoming events. However, accurate prediction along ...
Maritime anomaly detection based on mean-reverting stochastic processes applied to a real-world scenario
(CMRE, 2019/05)
A novel anomaly detection procedure based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) mean-reverting stochastic process is presented. The considered anomaly is a vessel that deviates from a planned route, changing its nominal velocity ...